Latest Odds
The Republican primary for Florida’s 6th Congressional District is a high-profile contest to secure a stronghold seat. The race became an open field after Michael Waltz resigned in early 2025 to join the Trump administration as National Security Advisor. Randy Fine won the subsequent special election and is now running as the incumbent for a full term in the 2026 cycle.
Key Dates
Primary Election: August 18, 2026
Registration Deadline: July 20, 2026
Early Voting: August 8 – August 15, 2026
The Candidates
The field includes incumbent leadership, military veterans, and public figures:
Randy Fine (Incumbent): A former state representative who recently won the April 2025 special election with significant backing from Donald Trump.
Ernest Audino: A retired U.S. Army Brigadier General running on a platform of national defense and border security.
Dan Bilzerian: The venture capitalist and social media personality, who entered the race as a "wild card" candidate.
Charles Gambaro: A veteran and defense contractor who has shown competitive early fundraising numbers.
Alexandra van Cleef: A local candidate focusing on grassroots conservative issues.
The Landscape
The district remains a "Solid Republican" (R+14) stronghold. The primary is effectively the deciding race for the seat, with candidates competing to prove their "America First" credentials to a constituency that includes a high concentration of veterans and conservative retirees across Volusia, Flagler, St. Johns, and Marion counties.
Sources:
Historical Data
| Date | Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| May 30th 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 29th 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 28th 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 27th 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 26th 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 25th 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 24th 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 23rd 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 10.00% | |
| May 22nd 2026 | Randy Fine | 41.00% |
| Dan Bilzerian | 12.00% |