Which Party Will Win the Greatest Number of Seats in the Welsh Assembly?

Smarkets

Latest Odds

Plaid Cymru
83.72%
Conservative
50.76%
Reform UK
38.47%
SmarketsJanuary 15th 2026

Historical Data

DateCandidateOdds
January 14th 2026Plaid Cymru70.95%
Reform UK40.95%
Labour3.12%
January 13th 2026Plaid Cymru72.46%
Reform UK46.56%
Labour3.45%
January 12th 2026Plaid Cymru58.14%
Liberal Democrats51.81%
Conservative50.76%
January 11th 2026Plaid Cymru58.14%
Liberal Democrats51.81%
Conservative50.76%
January 10th 2026Plaid Cymru57.80%
Liberal Democrats51.81%
Conservative50.76%
January 9th 2026Plaid Cymru57.80%
Conservative50.76%
Reform UK45.05%
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