Which Party Will Win the Greatest Number of Seats in the Welsh Assembly?

Smarkets

Latest Odds

Plaid Cymru
97.41%
Reform UK
14.71%
Labour
0.37%
SmarketsMay 8th 2026

Historical Data

DateCandidateOdds
May 7th 2026Plaid Cymru93.53%
Reform UK21.74%
Labour0.53%
May 6th 2026Reform UK21.28%
Labour0.37%
Green0.36%
May 5th 2026Plaid Cymru78.46%
Reform UK33.33%
Labour1.67%
May 4th 2026Plaid Cymru77.25%
Reform UK30.95%
Conservative4.76%
May 3rd 2026Plaid Cymru81.39%
Reform UK30.77%
Green2.08%
May 2nd 2026Plaid Cymru71.69%
Reform UK33.56%
Green2.78%
May 1st 2026Plaid Cymru71.69%
Reform UK33.67%
Conservative5.09%
April 30th 2026Plaid Cymru72.46%
Reform UK33.33%
Conservative5.09%
April 29th 2026Plaid Cymru72.65%
Reform UK36.45%
Conservative5.41%
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Which Party Will Win the Greatest Number of Seats in the Welsh Assembly?