TN-07 margin of victory?

On December 2, 2025, voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will choose a new representative after Republican Rep. Mark Green resigned in July. The race features Republican Matt Van Epps, a retired Army officer and former state commissioner, against Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state legislator and former social worker.  

This election is special because it’s being held outside the normal cycle to fill a vacant seat, and because the district—long considered safely Republican—has become unexpectedly competitive. Polls show Van Epps and Behn nearly tied, despite Donald Trump winning the district by 22 points in 2024.

With Republicans holding only a slim majority in the U.S. House (219–213), the outcome could have national implications. A Democratic win would narrow the GOP’s margin to the bare minimum needed for control, making this race a symbolic test of momentum for both parties.

References: 
- Fox News: Democrats, Republicans go all in on final 2025 congressional ballot box showdown
- USA Today: TN election poll shows close race between Aftyn Behn, Matt Van Epps
- Ballotpedia: Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election, 2025
- Wikipedia: 2025 Tennessee’s 7th congressional district special election