The race to succeed long-time Representative Jerrold Nadler in New York’s 12th Congressional District has quickly become one of the most expensive and high-profile primary battles in the country. Following Nadler’s retirement announcement, a crowded field of heavyweights, rising stars, and political outsiders has emerged, turning the district—which spans both the Upper West and Upper East Sides of Manhattan—into a laboratory for the future of the Democratic Party.
The Front-Runners and a Kennedy Surge
As of March 2026, polling suggests a competitive three-way split among the leading contenders. According to a survey commissioned by the George Conway campaign and conducted by GQR, Jack Schlossberg has taken an early lead. Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy and a social media personality, currently holds 25% support among likely Democratic voters. His campaign has largely benefited from high name recognition and a youthful appeal that resonates with the district's younger professionals.
However, the race is far from settled. George Conway, the prominent attorney and anti-Trump commentator, follows with 16%. Conway has leveraged his national media profile to raise over $2.4 million in just a few months, positioning himself as a fierce constitutional defender.
Trailing closely are two seasoned local legislators:
Micah Lasher: An Assembly Member from the West Side who has secured the coveted endorsement of Jerrold Nadler and a $5 million support pledge from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Alex Bores: An East Side Assembly Member endorsed by former Rep. Carolyn Maloney. Bores has raised over $2.2 million but has recently faced a barrage of attack ads from tech-funded super PACs due to his stance on AI regulation.
Key Issues: AI, Healthcare, and "The Kennedy Factor"
The primary has been defined by unique policy clashes. Alex Bores has become a target for the tech industry after pushing for stricter oversight of artificial intelligence. Super PACs have spent over $1 million reminding voters of his past work with Palantir, a company that provided technology to ICE, in an attempt to damage his standing with progressive voters.
On the other side of the district, candidates like scientist Nina Schwab are focusing on public health. Schwab’s campaign has gained traction by positioning itself as a direct opposition to the health policies of the Trump administration, specifically targeting the influence of figures like RFK Jr.
Polling and Undecided Voters
Despite the high-profile nature of the candidates, the most significant "candidate" in the race remains the undecided voter. The March 2026 City & State poll indicated that 33% of voters are still unsure who they will support.
With fewer than 100 days until the primary, the field is beginning to consolidate. Several candidates, including self-funder Alan Pardee, have already dropped out, leaving 10 Democrats in the running. Analysts suggest that while Schlossberg holds the "name brand" advantage, the organizational strength of Lasher and Bores, backed by Manhattan’s political establishment, could shift the tide as the ground game intensifies.
Conclusion
The NY-12 primary is more than just a local election; it is a clash between legacy politics, modern media influence, and deep-pocketed special interests. Whether the district chooses a Kennedy scion, a national pundit, or a local lawmaker will signal the direction New York Democrats intend to take in a post-Nadler era.
References
City & State New York (March 6, 2026): "Poll: Schlossberg leads NY-12 race." By Grace Thomas.
NY1 News (March 17, 2026): "Inside the crowded Democratic fight for New York’s 12th Congressional District." Reported by Dan Rivoli.
Federal Election Commission (2026): Campaign Finance Filings for Bores, Lasher, and Schlossberg.
GQR Research (March 2026): Democratic Primary Survey of NY-12 Likely Voters.