As the 2028 U.S. presidential race begins to take shape, political betting markets are offering a glimpse into early frontrunners. According to aggregated odds from USPoliticalOdds.com, Senator JD Vance and Governor Gavin Newsom currently lead their respective parties in the race for the White House.
Republican Field: Vance Dominates
JD Vance holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary odds with a 53.5% chance of securing the nomination. He’s followed distantly by Marco Rubio (9.5%), Donald Trump (5.5%), and Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin (both at 3.5%). Vance also leads the overall presidential odds with a 27.8% chance of winning the general election.
Democratic Field: Newsom Ahead, AOC Rising
On the Democratic side, California Governor Gavin Newsom is the clear favorite with 35.0% odds to win the nomination. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows with 14.0%, while Andy Beshear, Pete Buttigieg, and J.B. Pritzker trail in the single digits. Newsom also ranks second in overall presidential odds at 19.6%, behind Vance.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump: Fading Favorites
Despite her position as Vice President, Kamala Harris holds just 4.0% odds to win the Democratic nomination and 2.5% to win the presidency. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the current president, has 5.5% odds to secure the GOP nomination and 5.0% to win the general election, suggesting waning influence heading into 2028.
Party Odds: A Near Toss-Up
Betting markets show a razor-thin margin between the two major parties: Democrats at 50.8% and Republicans at 49.7% to win the presidency. This reflects a deeply polarized electorate and a competitive landscape.
As candidates begin to test the waters and build their campaigns, these early odds offer a snapshot of momentum, media buzz, and perceived electability. With primaries still over two years away, the race remains fluid—but the betting boards suggest Vance and Newsom are the ones to watch.
Source: USPoliticalOdds.com.