As the 2028 Democratic presidential primary season begins to stir, two California powerhouses—Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris—are emerging as early frontrunners. Their intertwined political histories, contrasting trajectories, and recent polling data suggest a compelling and potentially contentious race ahead.
Betting Odds and Polls: Newsom Takes the Early Lead
According to recent betting markets, Gavin Newsom currently leads the Democratic field, with odds placing him ahead of all other contenders, including Harris. Polling data reinforces this trend: a Politico/Citrin poll conducted in August 2025 shows Newsom leading with 25% support, followed by Harris at 19%, Pete Buttigieg at 13%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%. In California, Newsom also outpaces Harris among Democratic voters, a notable shift given Harris’s home-state advantage.
Harris’s 2024 Performance: A Complicated Legacy
Kamala Harris entered the 2024 race under extraordinary circumstances. After President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July 2024, Harris stepped in as the Democratic nominee. Her campaign initially energized the party base, raising over $310 million in July alone, more than double Donald Trump’s haul that month. Early polling even showed her leading Trump nationally.
However, Harris ultimately lost the 2024 election, falling short in all seven key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While her candidacy reinvigorated parts of the Democratic coalition, the loss has raised questions about her electability in 2028.
Newsom’s California Record: Progressive Ambition Meets National Spotlight
Gavin Newsom has spent over two decades in California politics, serving as Mayor of San Francisco, Lieutenant Governor, and since 2019, Governor of California. His tenure has been marked by bold progressive policies, including aggressive climate initiatives, expanded healthcare access, and high-profile clashes with the Trump administration over immigration and civil rights.
Newsom’s national profile has grown steadily, bolstered by his media savvy and willingness to engage in high-visibility political battles. His leadership during crises—from wildfires to COVID-19—has earned both praise and criticism, but it’s clear he’s positioning himself as a capable executive with national ambitions.
A Shared History—and a Subtle Rivalry
Both Harris and Newsom owe early boosts in their careers to former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, who appointed them to key positions in the late 1990s. Their paths have crossed repeatedly: Harris served as San Francisco’s District Attorney while Newsom was mayor, and both rose through California’s Democratic ranks in parallel.
Despite their shared roots, their relationship has long been described as one of “frenemies.” Harris supported Newsom during his 2021 recall campaign, but tensions have simmered beneath the surface for years. Harris’s recent memoir reportedly includes pointed reflections on their rivalry, signaling that a primary showdown could be anything but cordial.
Looking Ahead
With the Democratic field still taking shape, the 2028 primary promises to be a defining moment for the party. Newsom’s executive experience and momentum give him an early edge, but Harris’s national recognition and loyal base ensure she remains a formidable contender. Their shared California roots—and complicated history—add a dramatic twist to what could become one of the most closely watched political duels of the decade.
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